How would a bird flu pandemic start?
Will there really be an Avian
Flu Pandemic?

The avian flu virus first needs to gain the ability to spread easily from person to person. This would be a mutation of the virus.

Avian H5N1 flu virus has shown a great ability to mutate.
The initial signs might be an outbreak among caregivers at a hospital or a cluster of cases not linked to contact with birds.

Of the few avian influenza viruses that have crossed the species barrier to infect humans, H5N1 has caused the largest number of detected cases of severe disease and death in humans.

In 1918-1919, a global flu epidemic, or pandemic, struck half the world's
population and claimed the lives of 20 million. Still today, 10,000 to 20,000 Americans--almost all of them elderly, newborns, or chronically ill--die each year from flu complications, usually pneumonia.

In the current outbreaks in Asia and Europe , more than half of those infected with the virus have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults. However, it is possible that the only cases currently being reported are those in the most severely ill people, and that the full range of illness caused by the H5N1 virus has not yet been defined.

In theory, health authorities should be able to contain a localized bird flu outbreak by isolating sick people and treating those who've been exposed with anti-viral drugs.

If that strategy fails, the avian virus will spread. In this day of widespread air travel, to other countries even worldwide within days.

At that point, attention will shift to rapid development and distribution of a bird flu vaccine, the supplying of anti-flu medication to affected areas, and other broad public-health measures.

There is currently no commercially available vaccine to protect humans against H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia and Europe.

 

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